Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are netting more from set-plays as an alternative.
When we compare goal sources to the first 11 games last season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 less overall.
Considering overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.
And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts created from them excluding penalties, showing how effective clubs have been at finding ways to convert from dead-ball chances.
Scoring Rates Show a Story
301 total goals notched in 110 games so far calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the smallest for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
But just 196 scores coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season is also the unique EPL season to see scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?
When it comes to scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest decrease, registering just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolves, England's top division's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London phenomenon, with half of the London's seven clubs scoring at least five fewer goals from open play than last season.
In fairness, this is mainly because them netting numerous goals at the early stages of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to score in open-play the current term.
Meanwhile Manchester City have experienced the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far originating in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have netted an additional three goals in open-play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games en route to relegation the previous campaign.
Regarding scoring from set-pieces (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with both sides making up for the reduction of five goals that they've produced in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.
United have recorded twice as many scores from set-pieces as they managed in matchday 11 the previous campaign ahead of Ruben Amorim took over, while the Black Cats again are better at netting than the similar-colored team they superseded.
Manchester City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, since they've netted a reduction of three than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, though this may result from the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.
Overall Patterns
Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – represent this term's primary examples by netting less goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while City stand as the only side to defy the pattern to date by doing the contrary.
It will be interesting to see if sides persist to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they find again their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open play also.
