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Ambitious pledges to transform the city more affordable for residents propelled democratic socialist the incoming mayor to his surprising win on Tuesday. Included are free buses, childcare for all, and a large-scale increase in affordable homes.

However, making the urban center more affordable for residents is an expensive government task, and numerous economists and politicians to Mamdani’s right argue he faces too many hurdles to meaningfully deliver on his key proposals.

Adding complexity to the situation is the federal administration, which will almost certainly pull funding for New York in an attempt to sabotage Mamdani and create funding gaps that make it more difficult to pay for fresh initiatives.

Additionally, the city must secure state government authorization to adjust several income sources. One expert pointed to the state legislature blocking the city from increasing dog licensing fees in 2014 due to a dispute between the incumbent at the time and a lawmaker.

“A striking example of stating the issue is New York City can’t raise dog licensing fees without state legislature approval, and that held true previously, and it’s true now,” he noted.

However, analysts highlight favorable conditions: Mamdani’s proposals are widely supported and would solve fundamental issues. The Democratic party now have significant control in the state government, and several see economic and political pathways to making the proposals a success.

In what ways could Mamdani finance his ambitious program? Here’s a detailed look by revenue source and initiative.

Generating Revenue

The Mamdani campaign estimates it could generate approximately $10bn by raising the business tax, taxes on the wealthy, and current government revenues.

Detractors claim companies and the wealthy will move away, but this is disputed by credible research. Additionally, the corporate tax is on earnings made in the state no matter where a company is located, making the argument largely irrelevant.

Business Levy Hike

Mamdani calculates a state tax increase from 7.25% and 11.5% on corporate profits would generate around five billion dollars, much of which would be funneled to the city. State leaders would have to approve the proposal. Legislative leaders have in the past supported comparable ideas, but the state executive is against increasing levies.

However, the governor backs universal childcare, a very popular initiative because childcare is commonly seen as cost-prohibitive, said one policy director. It would be challenging for moderate Democrats to “resist enacting a landmark program”, he added. “Nobody says ‘Nothing should be done to reduce childcare costs.’”

What’s been lacking, the expert said, has been a leader like Mamdani who says: “Yes, it requires funding, and we will increase revenue to make it happen.”

Increasing Levies on the Affluent

The proposal aims to raising $4bn with a 2% hike on those making above $1m annually. Though it’s a municipal levy, the state government must approve the rise, and the proposal is typically resisted by moderate Democrats.

However there is a political pathway, the expert noted. Raising taxes on the rich is broadly popular and, similar to the corporate tax increase, using the proceeds to support favored initiatives makes it easier to sell in the state capital.

Rent Freeze

Regarding expense, a rent freeze on regulated housing is the simplest to implement – it’s minimally costly. However, a freeze must be approved by the housing panel, and there might not exist enough support on it before Mamdani appoints members with his own appointments.

Fare-Free and Efficient Buses

Mamdani projects fare-free transit will cost at least $700m, which factors in an evasion rate of forty-eight percent. Analysts suggest Mamdani could probably cover the expense by optimizing or cutting additional services in the city’s $116bn annual spending plan.

Publicly Run Food Markets

A trial initiative for several public food markets that would be built in underserved “food deserts” is estimated at sixty million dollars and could additionally be paid for by adjusting priorities in the $116bn spending plan.

Building Affordable Housing Properties

Many people to the conservative side of Mamdani have written off the proposal to spend about one hundred billion dollars building 200,000 low-income homes over a decade, largely because it would require substantial debt. The expert said those arguing against this aspect mostly miss that the plan is not to take on one hundred billion dollars immediately – the debt would be accrued and repaid in phases over multiple administrations.

He also stressed the proposal is not for no-cost homes, but affordable housing that would generate revenue to reduce debt. Moreover, the projects could in part be privately financed.

“This is how the plan adds up,” he said.

Childcare for All

Implementing childcare access for all would cost between $2.5bn and twelve billion dollars by most estimates, depending on whether it is a municipal or state initiative and additional variables. Financing is the major uncertainty – will the business and high-earner levies be approved in the state capital? One analyst commented he expected some compromise, as is typical with big proposals.

“Proposals that Mamdani promised will likely get a haircut,” he said. “And the state leader’s expressed opposition to revenue hikes may just confront practical limits – she likely cannot achieve the objectives she wants on the expenditure front without some flexibility on the tax side.”