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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.